Humans have always been hopeless at predicting the futureâ¦most people now generally agree that the margin of viability in prophecy appears to be 1 ten years. Even sophisticated research endeavours in this arena tend to go 2 off the rails after a decade or so. The computer industry has been particularly prone to bold (and often way off the mark) predictions, for example: âI think there is a world market for maybe five computersâ Thomas J. Watson, IBM Chairman (1943), âI have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that wonât last out the yearâ Prentice Hall Editor (1957), âThere is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their homeâ Ken Olsen, founder of DEC (1977) and â640K ought to be enough for anybodyâ Bill Gates, CEO Microsoft (1981). 3 The field of Artificial Intelligence â right from its inception â has been particularly plagued by âbold prediction syndromeâ, and often by leading practitioners who should know better. AI has received a lot of bad press 4 over the decades, and a lot of it deservedly so. How often have we groaned in despair at the latest âby the year-20xx, we will all haveâ¦(insert your own particular âhobby horseâ here â e. g.
